All eyes will be on the Chesapeake Energy Arena this Saturday as Oklahoma City (41-17 SU, 23-34-1 ATS) will try to do something that nobody has been able to do this season, attempt to slow down Golden State (52-5 SU, 31-23-3 ATS).
Oddsmakers opened the Warriors as three-point road favorites and based on what we’ve seen from the defending champions, it might be hard to fade them in this spot.
Golden State has been a road favorite of six or less this season nine times and the club has gone 8-1 straight up and 6-2-1 against the spread with the lone loss coming at Dallas when Stephen Curry sat out with a calf injury.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma City hasn’t been an underdog at home this season and it’s only been catching points five times this season. Unfortunately for the Thunder, they’ve gone 1-4 both SU and ATS in this role and you could dismiss the win since the line was skewed in a victory at Utah when the status of Kevin Durant was up in the air until tip-off. He played and OKC hammered the Jazz by 22 points (111-89) as a 1 ½-point underdog.
Looking at the four losses, one of them came to Golden State a few weeks ago in the Bay Area right before the Super Bowl. The Warriors dropped the Thunder 116-108 as eight-point home favorites in a game that saw them lead by as many as 20 points. Oklahoma City made a late rally and cut the lead to 103-102 with four minutes left but Golden State closed on a 13-6 run and actually managed to get the push for some bettors.
That game was nationally televised on ABC and this week’s showdown will tip off on the same network at 8:30 p.m. ET. Bettors have seen four games play in this spot so far and the results have been mixed with visitors stealing a pair of games. Underdogs have gone 3-0-1 ATS while the ‘under’ is 3-1.
Chicago (+10 ½) 96 at Cleveland 83 Under 202
Cleveland (+1 ½) 117 vs. San Antonio 103 – Over 202 ½
Golden State (-8) 116 vs. Oklahoma City 108 – Under 233 ½
Golden State (-4) 115 at L.A. Clippers 112 – Under 228 ½
The Warriors played in the headliner last Saturday in Los Angeles and the Clippers pulled off an improbable backdoor cover with a 13-2 run in the final three minutes.
Minnesota at New Orleans: No overnight number was posted on this game due to key injuries for both clubs but a lean to the ‘over’ could be in play, especially with a pair of non-playoff teams squaring off late in the season. The Timberwolves play no defense and haven’t held an opponent under 100 in February while the Pelicans have allowed 112 PPG since the All-Star break. If the shots fall, this could cash early in the fourth quarter.
Portland at Chicago: The Trail Blazers got bumped off on Thursday to the Rockets at home, which snapped their six-game winning streak. We’re going to find out how good Portland is very soon since it plays 11 of its next 13 on the road. Fortunately, they start this journey against a depleted Chicago team that played last night and lost by 15 at Atlanta. Chicago has gone 4-6 both SU and ATS on zero days rest but its 3-1 at home in these situations.
San Antonio at Houston: I thought this line would be a little higher (Spurs -5 ½) and it makes me believe that the Rockets have a chance to knock off San Antonio, something they’ve already done at home this season on Christmas Day. It was an ugly 88-84 win for Houston as a seven-point home underdog and one of the rare times that the club actually held somebody under 100 and won. Including that game, the Rockets have been home underdogs five times this season and they’re 3-2 both SU and ATS while the ‘under’ has cashed in all five. I personally use situational handicapping a lot in the NBA and I’m scratching my head in this game. I don’t like to back teams playing at home (Rockets) after a road trip of three or more games but San Antonio is also playing the final game of an eight-game roadie and while they are pros, maybe the homesick angle comes into play. I might just be over-analyzing this one but the number does look short and for what it’s worth, San Antonio is 4-9 ATS in its last 13.
Detroit at Milwaukee: This is actually a solid game and the line (Bucks-2 ½) and the line tells you it will be a competitive matchup. The pair have squared off twice this season, with each team notching a win and cover at home. . They play 10 of their next 12 at the Bradley Center and need to start winning quickly if they want to make the postseason. Milwaukee lost but covered at Boston two nights ago and is 5-2 ATS (4-3 SU) in its last seven. After dropping five straight, Detroit rebounded with an impressive road win over Cleveland last Monday and a blowout over Philadelphia at home on Wednesday. The first two encounters saw totals range from 190 ½ to 192 and this number is as high as 203, which seems a bit inflated with Detroit leaning ‘under’ (5-1 L6) recently.
Brooklyn at Utah: The Nets have only won back-to-back games twice this season and they just beat Phoenix on Thursday. Utah (-11) is a respectable 21-8 SU and 16-12-1 ATS as a favorite this season but it hasn’t been a double-digit ‘chalk’ in any of those games. The Jazz have become a darling of the betting public but sometimes you have to know when to hop off the sinking boat, especially when that ship is 1-5 ATS in its last six and 3-7 ATS in the last 10.
Memphis at Phoenix: I’m wouldn’t advise you to take the Suns just based on talent and even though Memphis is playing on no rest, the Grizzlies have gone 8-3 both SU and ATS in back-to-back spots this season. Different faces on the court for Saturday but Memphis has won nine of the last 10 against Phoenix and they’ve covered seven on those games.