Phoenix at Charlotte
The Hornets are listed as heavy favorites (-13) over the Suns and they’ve gone 13-4 SU and 8-9 ATS in the role of a home ‘chalk’ this season. As a double-digit favorites, they’re 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS while the ‘over’ has cashed in both those games.
Charlotte is playing its first home game after finishing up a five-game road trip on Sunday and that’s never an easy spot. The club went 3-2 both SU and ATS and the defense only allowed 97.4 points per game during this stretch, which helped the ‘under’ go 4-1.
Despite scoring 111 and 106 in its last two games, Phoenix isn’t an offensive juggernaut by any means. The Suns did snap a 12-game losing skid on Saturday with a win over the Grizzlies but it hasn’t won back-to-back games since early December. Even before the injury woes, Phoenix has struggled versus the East on the road this season, going 2-8 both SU and ATS.
Phoenix has gotten the better of Charlotte recently, winning seven of the last eight meetings while covering six of those games. In the first matchup this season, the Suns notched a 111-102 win as two-point home underdogs.
Chicago at Miami
The Heat opened as 6 ½-point home favorites over the Bulls and that number dropped a point after Derrick Rose (hamstring) was upgraded to ‘probable’ for this game. It’s good news for Chicago, who has been stung by the late-season injury bug. The club just finished February with a 4-8 record and All-Star Jimmy Butler (knee) has missed 10 of those games, with his return expected to come in mid-March. Along with Butler, Nikola Mirotic (appendicitis) and Joakim Noah (shoulder) are also on the IR for the Bulls.
Miami is also dealing with injuries, in particular Chris Bosh. A few pundits don’t expect him to return this season and he could be done for his career due to a blood clot issue. Miami has managed to overcome the loss of Bosh, going 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS.
The Heat have been climbing up the playoff ladder in the East lately and they’ve been on a great run in conference play, going 9-1 both SU and ATS. As a home favorite, Miami has gone 15-9 SU and 11-12-1 ATS this season.
The visitor has won and covered four straight in this series and the ‘under’ has cashed in all four of those games, rather easily too. Tuesday’s total is hovering around 199 points, which is rare in the NBA these days, and Miami continues to be the best ‘under’ (38-21) team in the league.
Portland at New York
The Knicks stopped the Trail Blazers 112-110 on Dec. 12 as 3 ½-point road underdogs. Since that win, the pair have gone in opposite directions. Since that outcome, New York has gone 14-22 while Portland has produced a 22-13 record. The Trail Blazers have won and covered three straight games at Madison Square Garden and they’ve opened as four-point road favorites on Tuesday, deservingly.
That number has jumped up to five at a few books as of Tuesday morning and it’s hard to disagree with the move considering Portland has started its six-game road trip with back-to-back wins. The biggest weakness for the Knicks is their backcourt and it’s hard to see them keeping up with the Blazers dangerous duo of Lillard and McCollum tonight.
If for some reason you believe New York might answer the bell tonight and step up, then make a note that the Knicks are 3-13 SU and 5-10-1 ATS as home underdogs this season. The Blazers head to Boston tomorrow and that might be the spot to fade them on this road trip.
Orlando at Dallas
These teams met 10 days ago in Orlando and the Mavericks will be looking to avenge a 110-104 overtime loss to the Magic as 1 ½-point road underdogs. Prior to this setback, Dallas had won seven straight against Orlando (6-1 ATS).
Dallas (-5) has been a decent home favorite this season, going 15-6 SU and 13-7-1 ATS and that record includes three straight wins coming into this game.
Orlando is coming off a wire-to-wire 130-116 win over Philadelphia on Sunday and only comes to Texas for one game before heading back home. The Magic have only won back-to-back games once in 2016 but I believe that might change tonight. Orlando’s record versus the Western Conference is less than stellar at 4-6, but the ATS mark is 9-1 and it could easily be 10-0.
The Mavericks defense isn’t great at all and the team hasn’t held an opponent under 100 points in eight straight games, which has led to eight straight ‘over’ winners. Orlando can play fast as well and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a tight high-scoring affair in this game tonight.
Atlanta at Golden State
Golden State opened as a nine-point home favorite over Atlanta and most would believe the line would be higher and it should be. However, the Warriors’ Stephen Curry (ankle) is listed as ‘questionable’ and that’s obviously a huge factor. Curry has missed two games this season and the team has gone 1-1 with the lone win coming by four points.
Another factor for Golden State could be emotions. The Warriors just knocked off the Thunder 121-118 in a classic overtime game on Saturday which wrapped up an impressive road trip that saw the team go 5-1. The Warriors went 2-4 ATS during that span and closed February with a 3-6-1 ATS mark.
These teams met last week in Atlanta and the Warriors notched a 102-92 victory as six-point favorites. Including that win, Golden State is 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in its last eight versus Atlanta which includes a pair of recent double-digit wins from Oracle Arena.
The Hawks have gone 6-5 on the road both SU and ATS versus the Western Conference but when stepping up against quality opponents, they were humbled at the Thunder (107-94) and Spurs (108-88).
Brooklyn at L.A. Lakers
Anytime you see the Lakers (-2) laying points, you might want to pass all together. Los Angeles has been in that role three times this season and has gone 1-2 both SU and ATS. The Nets played at the Staples Center last night and lost to the Clippers 105-95 but managed to cover as 12 ½-point underdogs. Including that cover, Brooklyn has cashed tickets in four straight (2-2 SU) games.
Despite going 2-8 SU on zero days rest this season, Brooklyn has notched a 6-4 ATS mark in these situations.
The Lakers have been off since Friday and Kobe Bryant is expected to play tonight. The club has started the second-half with five straight losses (2-3 ATS) and the defense has been atrocious (118.6 PPG). The meaningless game approach could have you leaning ‘over’ in this spot but be careful going high with the Lakers since they’re the worst shooting team in the league and second worst 3-point shooting team.
Los Angeles knocked off the Nets 104-98 on Nov. 6 as three-point road underdogs, which snapped a three-game losing skid to Brooklyn. The Nets have covered all of their last five games (2-3 SU) against the Lakers from the Staples Center.
