NFL Week 9 Monday Night Football Betting Preview
Buffalo (4-4 SU; 4-4 ATS) vs. Seattle (4-2-1 SU; 3-4 ATS)
Sportsbook.ag Odds: Seattle (-7); Total set at 43.5
Two slumping teams from different conferences meet on MNF this week and both would love to come away with the victory to revitalize their spirits heading into the second half of the season. Buffalo has lost two in a row after winning four straight and the euphoria from that four-game winning streak got slapped right out of Bills fans last week when Tom Brady and the Patriots dominated them from start to finish.
Seattle is 0-1-1 SU in their last two, but both of those games came on the road and being back at home should sooth some of the pain. The Seahawks still have a major concern with the play of their offensive line, and offense in general, but this Bills team has allowed 28+ during their two-game losing streak and facing this Bills defense might be exactly what the Seahawks need to see right now.
Yet, the biggest issue when breaking down this game is whether or not Bills RB LeSean McCoy will take the field. McCoy is 6th in the NFL in rushing yards with 598, but he’s also missed a game plus and has put up those numbers on just 112 carries. Every RB ahead of him in total yardage has at least 153 rush attempts, so it’s not hard to see just how important McCoy is to this Bills offense.
McCoy averages 5.34 yards per carry which is the best average for any RB that’s been the starter the entire year (Jay Ajayi in Miami is at 6.29 but only recently became the starter), and as a team the Bills get 5.5 yards per rush attempt on the year. That’s a solid number overall, but the bulk of that is because of McCoy and if he can’t go, the Bills could be in trouble.
Seattle has their own injury concern as well that is directly correlated with McCoy and Buffalo’s running attack with DE Michael Bennett on the shelf for the next couple of weeks. Bennett is by far the Seahawks best defensive player on that front line and not having him out there does mean that the Bills should be able to find a few more holes at the line of scrimmage, regardless of who’s playing RB.
While these two injuries will have an impact on the game, I wouldn’t be in a hurry to conclude that those absences equate to very few points scored like nearly 75% of the bettors . Yes, that ugly 6-6 tie by Seattle is still somewhat fresh in everyone’s minds, but the Seahawks did manage to put up 20 on New Orleans last week in a loss and the Bills defense has been playing just as soft of late.
Buffalo is 4-0 O/U in thier last four games overall, and their lone trip to the West Coast this year already produced an ‘over’ in a 30-19 win over the Rams. The Bills offense with or without McCoy has to be willing to take some shots against this Seattle defense and the signing of Percy Harvin to help bolster the WR corps should force Seattle to respect the deep ball if nothing else. Furthermore, Buffalo is on a 8-2 O/U when coming off a loss and are 6-2 O/U in their last eight appearances on MNF.
Meanwhile, Seattle is hoping to get their own offense back in gear after some sluggish weeks and the success they saw Tom Brady have last week against this Bills defense has to help. Tight ends have killed the Bills for the most part this year with Gronkowski having a huge day last week and Seattle’s got one that’s eerily similar in Jimmy Graham.
Graham could be poised for a big night against this defense and that’s something to keep in mind. Another thing to keep in mind is the fact that while these teams don’t play each other often, the ‘over’ is a perfect 8-0 in their last eight meetings and that play has become a contrarian play this week.
