Are you ready for some football betting this season?
– Football bettors can choose from a variety of markets.
– Football betting success comes down to knowing what to do with the information you have.
Prepare for Football Betting
It is about that time again. College football and NFL teams are preparing for their upcoming seasons. Football bettors should be doing the same.
Chance always favors the prepared. If you are looking for more wins this season, you can’t simply fly by the seat of your pants. There are some things you can do to get ready to win more football bets this season.
If you want to win more, the key is understanding the game and finding the right information. Once you find the information, you need to know what to do with it. We take a look at how to utilize various pieces of information and excel at football betting this season.
Bet Types & Winning More
Most NFL bettors will wager on the point spread, moneyline, or game totals. The point spread bet is the most common. Betting on the spread is more than just simply picking a team to win. Bettors must understand odds and how to read and interpret them.
Over the last several years in the NFL, road underdogs have been relatively successful. Home teams will often be overvalued because they are playing at home. Road underdogs have covered the spread roughly 52 percent of the time over the past few years.
Now, there are a number of factors that go into making a betting decision on an NFL game. Injuries, recent player and team performance, and the weather all play a role in determining the outcome of a game.
There are also certain strategic elements that can affect a game. For example, strong defensive teams may be better choices for the Under when betting a game total. Or a head coach may like to pull starters in the fourth quarter if his team has a big lead.
All of this information can help a bettor this football season.
Football’s Key Numbers
Football is always scored a certain way. A touchdown is always worth six points. A field goal is always worth three and a successful kick after a touchdown is always one point. These values are the same whether it is college or NFL football.
As a result, there are certain key numbers that bettors can watch when making their various bet choices. When betting point spreads, bettors should know that most NFL games (and a higher percentage of college games) end with scoring margins of 3,6, and 7 points. Games will more often than not end with a scoring margin that is a factor of one of these numbers.
Knowing these common scoring margins can help bettors make more successful point spread bets. Another key piece of NFL information has been helping NFL bettors over the past few years.
In 2015, the NFL moved the point-after-touchdown (PAT) attempt back to the 15-yard line. As a result, kickers make fewer PATs in the NFL. What this means for NFL bettors is that now there is more value on a -6.5-point favorite. The same is true of a +7.5-point underdog.
Key numbers also help football bettors when betting totals. In the NFL, more games end with a final combined score of 41 points. Games ending with 44 points are next. In college football, games end with final scores of 55, 51, and 45 points more than any other numbers. Those three point totals account for 10 to 12 percent of all college football totals.
Don’t forget, betting on NFL games is a little different than betting on college football games. Armed with pieces of information like this, football bettors can make better decisions and, ultimately, win more bets.
Excel at Football Betting – Line Shop
If you want to win more bets and watch your bankroll grow, one of the simplest things a bettor can do is shop for the best available line. This applies to any sport, but is imperative when betting NFL and college football.
Even novice bettors can go online and check pricing at numerous sportsbooks and get the best number. It’s like shopping for a new car or TV. Why pay more when you can pay less? It’s the same in the sports betting world.
If a bettor can find Alabama at -10.5 at one sportsbook but at -9.5 at another, that point can make the difference between a win and a loss. It’s the same for moneyline and totals bets. Finding the best possible price on a bet is an easy betting strategy that any bettor of any skill level can put into practice.
If winning football bets was easy, everyone would be doing it. Don’t make winning more difficult than it already is. Take the time to find the best line. Consider offshore sportsbooks too where you will find consistently better lines. Then, you’ll be ready for some football betting this season.
Don’t forget to check the NFL and college football futures markets too. These markets will be open all season long until just before the Super Bowl and the College Football Playoff.
Bettors will get more favorable odds the farther out they are from the end of the season. Odds will shorten as favorites win more games and get closer to winning a championship.
One thing worth noting is that in college football, betting the favorite isn’t always the best move. Since the institution of the CFP in 2014, the preseason betting favorite has won the national championship just once. That was Alabama in 2017.
The numbers are similar in the NFL. There have been 56 Super Bowls played to date. Only six times has the preseason betting favorite gone on to raise the Lombardi Trophy. The last time it happened was in 2018. That year, New England won the Super Bowl and was favored to do so prior to the beginning of the season.
Only four teams have been the NFL preseason favorite and then gone on to win that season’s Super Bowl. The Patriots did it in 2016 and 2018. San Francisco (1988, 1989) also did it twice and Indianapolis (2006) and Dallas (1993) each won once after being the preseason favorite.