As the 2016 NFL regular season continues to wind down it has become pretty clear as to which teams are the true contenders to win a conference championship to punch their ticket to Super Bowl LI next February. I have broken down the recently updated futures for both the AFC and the NFC to come up with my top favorite and top contender in each conference based on the value in their betting odds.
AFC Futures
Top Valued Favorite
It is no big surprise that the New England Patriots are at the top of the list as +120 favorites considering that they started the season in the same position. They are 10-2 heading into Monday night’s clash against Baltimore as seven-point home favorites and in solid position to lockup the top seed in the conference which would guarantee that the road to the AFC Championship would have to go through Foxboro in January. What I like the best about New England is that this team is experienced, resilient and highly motivated which only adds even more value to these odds.
Top Valued Contender
The sexy pick would be Oakland as a +550 third-favorite to win the AFC given its stunning 10-2 start, but with three road games remaining against division foes the Raiders could easily be relegated to taking the wild card road in the playoffs. I decided to stretch the betting odds a bit with Pittsburgh as my top contender at +650 betting odds. This has definitely been a tough team to figure out this season at 7-5, but the Steelers are starting to make a move with three-straight victories in convincing fashion. The key matchup left on schedule is a home game against Baltimore on Christmas Day to probably decide the AFC North.
NFC Futures
Top Valued Favorite
Dallas at 11-1 through its first 12 games would be the obvious fan-favorite at +140 betting odds, but playoff football ramps up a whole new level of pressure that could pose some problems for a rookie quarterback like Dak Prescott. Lurking in the wings as a +190 second-favorite is the Seattle Seahawks. They are 8-3-1 heading into Sunday’s huge showdown against Green Bay as 2.5-point road favorites. The outcome of this game could have a major impact on these current odds, but should the Seahawks prevail this number is likely to come down quite a bit so now is the time to bite. This is another team that has the necessary experience to make a deep run in the postseason and there is no doubt that Seattle is highly motivated to get back to the Super Bowl following a one-year hiatus.
Top Valued Contender
I was torn with this pick given that there are a few teams in the NFC that are in solid position to make a run at the conference title. Green Bay is an interesting pick at +1600, but the wild card route in the playoffs is a scary proposition given that Detroit (+1400) should hold on to win the NFC North. Atlanta’s odds to win the NFC are set at +1000, but I have some serious concerns of how the Falcons’ defense would hold up on the road. The New York Giants’ betting odds to make another improbable run to the Super Bowl have been set at +1200. While Tom Coughlin is no longer the head coach in New York, Eli Manning is still at the helm at quarterback. The Giants’ defense took a hit with the recent loss of Jason Pierre-Paul, but this unit as a whole has really stepped up its game in recent weeks. There is just something about this team that tells me it will still be playing football into the month of February.
