Watch these NBA trends in 2022-23.
– There are numerous NBA trends to watch for in 2022-23.
– Knowing how to identify NBA trends can help to win more bets.
NBA Trends to Watch in 2022-23
Every NBA season, new betting patterns emerge that can help the average bettor increase his bankroll. Naturally, you can only benefit from this knowledge if you know what to search for.
Knowing which trends to pay attention to is just half the battle. Bettors can find trends in the regular season as well as in the opening rounds of the league playoffs. Here we identify six different NBA trends that can greatly enhance your basketball betting success.
Betting Against the Spread
Betting against the spread is one of the more popular bets in the NBA. It applies to most major sports as well, but most bettors prefer the point spread wager.
Each and every game, an NBA team either wins or loses against the spread. That is, unless the game ends up in a “push” where the final scoring margin is the exact amount of the point spread.
With teams playing 82 games in the regular season, there is a healthy representative sample size. This helps the average bettor recognize any NBA trends.
Take, for example, the case of Memphis and Oklahoma City during the 2021-22 NBA season. The Grizzlies and Thunder were the only two NBA teams to cover the spread in over 60 percent of their games.
What was more intriguing was the fact that while Memphis was a playoff team, the Thunder won just 24 games all season. Memphis led the NBA in cover percentage at 63.4% with an ATS record of 59-34-1. Oklahoma City was second at 48-30-4 (61.5%).
On the other, bettors could have simply wagered against Brooklyn (33-52-2 ATS) and Portland (30-51-1 ATS) and enjoyed a healthy season of betting against the spread.
Identifying NBA trends like this one early in a season can help the average NBA bettor improve both his winning percentage and bankroll.
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NBA Trends in Betting Game Totals
If you aren’t betting NBA totals, you should consider doing so. There is a wealth of information out there to help any bettor identify NBA trends and capitalize on these bets as well as on playoff bets.
It’s easy to look up a team’s individual Over/Under record. Last season, for example, only two NBA teams went Over the total more 58 percent of the time or more. Those two teams were Minnesota and Indiana.
The Timberwolves had the best Over record – 52-37 (58.4%) – in the NBA. The Pacer were second with a 47-34-1 (58.0%) O/U mark.
With all of the pace and offensive metrics information available, bettors can easily identify potential value bets on NBA game totals.
The same holds for Under bettors. In 2021-22, Dallas had one of the strongest defenses in the NBA. They also played at a pretty slow pace offensively. As a result, the Mavs O/U record was 39-59-2 (60.2%). They had the most Unders in the league last year.
Again, another example of NBA trends. If you can identify them quickly, you can maximize your potential winnings for the entire season.
Home & Away Numbers
There will be NBA teams that play much better on their home floor. Others will have great numbers when playing on the road. Analyzing these NBA trends can help the average bettor win more bets.
For some teams, the contrast between their performances at home and on the road is like night and day. This may allow you to take advantage of home/away trends when the majority of people don’t take this into account.
The 2016 Portland Trail Blazers offer a great example. Portland went 28-13 at home that season and beat their opponents by an average of 5.7 points per game. On the road, the Trail Blazers were horrendous. They won just 16 of 41 road games and were outscored by an average of 4.1 points per night.
The smart bettor would have recognized this trend and taken advantage.
The NBA Schedule
The NBA schedule is a great indicator of performance in many circumstances. What smart bettors look for are games on back-to-back nights and long road trips. These can help bettors in their quest to win more NBA bets.
Take the 2021-22 New York Knicks as an example. For some reason, the Knicks were the best team in the NBA when playing with no rest. In 12 games played right after a game the previous night, the Knicks went 9-3 ATS.
On the other end, the Houston Rockets went 4-11 ATS in such games. Interestingly, those 15 games for Houston went Over the total by an average of 11.2 points per game. The Rockets were tired on that second night of a back-to-back and it showed in their defense.
The betting public doesn’t typically take travel, road trips, and back-to-back games into consideration when they place bets. The average bettor could, therefore, benefit from this information. He can also benefit from finding the best NBA playoff sportsbook.
Favorites Off a Big Win
It’s risky to wager on a team to cover a double-digit spread. It’s even riskier if that team is coming off a huge win.
Teams that won their previous game by 15 points or more have only successfully covered the spread 43% of the time since 2003. You would benefit greatly if you solely placed bets against this trend.
Of course, the challenge is identifying precise circumstances in which you have a favorite coming off a win of 15-plus points along with a -10 or higher line in their next game. However, if you want to uncover this tendency more quickly, keep an eye on successful teams throughout the season.
Overall NBA Trends
Some seasons have broader themes that you can identify with some investigation. For example, maybe underdogs start a season where they win 58 percent of the time. Maybe other NBA trends indicate home underdogs covering the spread less than 47 percent of the time.
Early season games may trend Under, for example. It’s a good idea to keep an eye out for bigger trends early in the season so you can capitalize on them before the general public does.
The Last Word
There are several NBA stats and statistics that can increase your odds of winning a wager. It’s your responsibility to locate them so you can get ahead of other gamblers.
Start with ATS and totals bets because they are simple stats to understand if you are completely new to NBA betting trends. As you keep analyzing data and patterns, you should start keeping an eye out for somewhat more complex statistics like home/away performances and overvalued favorites.
The NBA betting market is basically like any other. You’ll get better the more you bet on games. So, continue placing bets throughout the season while gradually learning to follow NBA trends.