The 2016 NFL regular season heads into Week 7 and it is already becoming pretty obvious which teams are true contenders verses quite a few pretenders based on their play on the field. When it comes to betting on the games, we are far more concerned with the teams that have provided the best return on investment when it comes to covering against the spread.
Stepping back to take a wider perspective of the league betting trends for the first six weeks of NFL action, the underdogs continue to impress with a straight-up 46.2 winning percentage on an overall record of 42-49 according to the results at Covers.com. When it comes to winning ATS, the underdogs winning rate still stands at a highly favorable 56.2 percent. This has been the trend since Week 1 and despite the tireless efforts of the Oddsmakers to even the score; this trend appears to be very much alive and well heading into Week 7. Looking back at that last seven days, the underdogs covered 57.2 percent of the time.
Breaking down the year-to-date results between teams getting points covering on the road verse covering on their home field, the advantage clearly goes to the home dogs with a healthy 58.6 winning percentage. Road dogs have not been all that shabby either by covering 55 percent of the time.
Savvy NFL bettors leaning towards the OVER on the total line the past seven days have also cleaned up with 60 percent of the games going OVER the closing line. When you expand this trend out to include the entire NFL regular season, the total has gone OVER 55.4 percent of the time.
When it comes to betting individual teams, the Minnesota Vikings top the list at 5-0 both SU and ATS. They went into last week’s bye with a 3-0 record ATS when closing as favorites and a 2-0 record as underdogs. They will go on the road this week as slight 2.5-point favorites to face the 3-2 Philadelphia Eagles.
The Dallas Cowboys are on a bye this week as probably the hottest betting team in the NFL. Following a Week 1 loss to the New York Giants that ended as a PUSH, they have reeled off five wins in a row both SU and ATS. Even more impressive is the Cowboys’ 3-0-1 record ATS when closing as underdogs. Moving forward, Dallas will likely be favored in both a home game against the Eagles and a road game against winless Cleveland in its next two outings following the week off.
Another hot betting team as an underdog has been the Jacksonville Jaguars. Following a 0-3 start, they have posted back-to-back wins against Indianapolis at home and Chicago on the road. Jacksonville has closed as an underdog in its first five games and it has covered the spread in four of those contests. Next up is this Sunday afternoon’s home game against Oakland as a slight one-point favorite. The Raiders are off to a solid SU 4-2 start while going 3-3 ATS. They have covered in two of three games when closing as underdogs.
If you are looking for the best dog in the show through the first six weeks then take a closer look at the 4-2 Atlanta Falcons. They are coming off a tough 26-24 loss to Seattle in which they closed as 6.5-point road underdogs. This latest cover raised their record to a perfect 5-0 ATS when closing as underdogs. Atlanta comes into this Sunday’s home game against San Diego as a 6.5-point favorite. The Chargers are coming off a huge 21-13 victory against Denver as three-point home underdogs and they are now 3-1 ATS on the year when getting points.
