As Week 8 in the NFL is set to get revved up, it’s a very important week for many teams, the Miami Dolphins being one. The New England Patriots have an opportunity to take Miami’s postseason aspirations away from them, but Miami’s recent play represents an excellent betting opportunity.
New England Patriots (6-0, 3-2-1 ATS) will host the Miami Dolphins (3-3, 3-3 ATS) to get Week 8 started at Foxborough. The Dolphins looked uninspired under Joe Philbin but now looks rejuvenated and poised to take a second half postseason run with new coach Dan Campbell calling the shots.
Miami started the year off right with a road win in Washington, but followed that up with three straight losses, including two within their AFC East division. Joe Philbin was released from his head coaching duties after a flat effort across the pond in London against the Jets. They managed only 226 total yards, including 59 on the ground, heading into their bye, and replaced with interim coach Campbell.
Campbell’s energetic approach has lit a fire under a Dolphins team that looked nothing short of horrendous. They are 2-0 since the coaching change, scoring a combined 82 points in those wins, after scoring only 79 in their previous four games.
In their 44-26 win over the Houston Texans last Sunday, Miami quarterback Ryan Tannehill looked great recording a perfect passer rating of 158.3 hitting on 18 of his 19 pass attempts for 282 yards and two touchdowns. But it’s the resurgence of the running game has been the difference. Running back Lamar Miller ran for only 131 yards in the first four games of the season, and since coach Campbell has been calling the shots, he has run for 288 in the last two.
Let’s not get too ahead of ourselves and forget about their undefeated opponents. The Patriots and Tom Brady look very focused after their offseason was filled with hot air. New England are one of five teams to start the season with a perfect record, but are coming off a hard fought 30-23 victory against AFC East foe New York Jets this past Sunday.
Some trends worth noting when looking at New England and Miami head to head are that the home team is 6-0 ATS in their last six meeting, while the favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5. Also worth mentioning is that the Dolphins are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings in New England.
The Patriots are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 home games but the Dolphins are 30-13 ATS in their last 43 road games versus a team with a winning home record. However, Miami is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 when playing the AFC East.
The Patriots will win tonight, but it should be a close, tough fought game. The Patriots have been their usual ferocious selves, with the Dolphins fighting for their 2015 lives. Take Miami against the spread, buy a couple points if you can.
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