When to Bet Super Bowl Player Props

Learn when to bet Super Bowl player props.

Key Points

– There is a right time to bet Super Bowl player props.

– Don’t overpay when you bet Super Bowl player props.

The whole NFL player props craze started with the Super Bowl. Now, online sportsbooks offer more and more possibilities for NFL player props every year. This year’s big game will be no different. 

You can also be certain of one thing. If sportsbooks are supplying more props bets, there are more opportunities to find profits. For Super Bowl LVI, one prominent sportsbook actually took more action on Super Bowl MVP Cooper Kupp’s Anytime Touchdown prop than they did on the game’s point spread. 

Sharp bettors often find props to be less appealing since they are more profitable for the sportsbooks. However, there are instances when you should bet NFL player props. Here are a couple scenarios when you should as well as a few when you shouldn’t.

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When you find a Super Bowl player prop that is reasonably priced and closely linked to another result, the prop is a bet worth making. 

Consider a Super Bowl where one team is heavily favored over the other. You won’t get a great deal on the moneyline on the favorite and you don’t really like laying a touchdown on the spread either. However, you might really like one quarterback to pass for more yards than the other. Neither quarterback’s price will be skewed and you will likely get a better price than you would betting the game’s moneyline.

What bettors would look for here is how the quarterback’s performance is tied to the game’s outcome. The heavily favored team’s quarterback is an elite passer who ranked near the top of the league in yards per game. The underdog is a run-heavy team where the quarterback is more of a game manager.

The favorite’s quarterback and his performance would lead the team to victory. This is a situation where you would consider backing this quarterback as long as the price is right.

When oddsmakers are setting player props odds, they often compare similar players. For example, take two starting running backs. Oddsmakers will attempt to determine which player has a clear advantage over his counterpart in a number of categories. Rushing yards is, of course, one of those.

Let’s say the two players have similar yardage statistics. They have rushed for roughly the same amount of yards. They have similar yards per game and yards per carry stats. However, one running back faced much tougher competition than the other. 

Smart bettors will then look at the opposing defense and determine if the running back that faced stiffer competition has an advantage. At the right price, this running back may have strong betting value. This is an instance where it makes sense to bet Super Bowl player props.

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When a player’s relevance is greatly increased by an injury or other condition, oddsmakers must adjust. They often have to establish odds for these props based on what they anticipate the betting public would do. 

Occasionally, these adjustments to a lineup could go unnoticed by the betting public despite having a significant effect on a player’s performance. Say you have an important offensive lineman who will be out with an injury. That would make it more difficult for a running back to achieve his rushing yards prop. It would also affect pass protection and, ultimately, the team’s passing game.

Savvy bettors look for these opportunities. There are times when oddsmakers get it wrong too. They fail to make the proper adjustment when an injury occurs. This is another situation for bettors to find an advantage.

Sportsbooks love player props on well-known NFL players. They love them because they know the betting public loves them too. Casual bettors will wager on Patrick Mahomes to go Over his passing yards prop all the time. This is one of the biggest Super Bowl betting mistakes.

Sportsbooks know this and bake that into their odds. That means odds on big-time NFL superstars are going to be worse than they should. Mahomes passing yards prop, for example, might be set at 259.5. The Over should be priced around -120, but sportsbooks will make it -150 knowing that the public will bet on it regardless of the price.

Before you bet Super Bowl player props, make sure you have an edge. If the bet doesn’t have value, don’t place it.

Just because you think a player might have a big day doesn’t mean that you should wager on one of his player props. If you have done the research and there is value, place your bet.

If you have to guess which wide receiver or which running back will be featured on Super Bowl Sunday, stay away. Keep in mind that a bet becomes less appealing the more speculation there is.

The bottom line is don’t guess when you bet Super Bowl player props.

When the price is too high on a Super Bowl player prop, either back off or shop around for a better number. Remember, bookies will adjust prices to take in equal action on both sides of a bet. 

Even when a bet seems reasonable, you could be paying too much. Take the Anytime Touchdown market. You like one team’s running back to score, but he’s priced at -175 at most sportsbooks. It seems reasonable, but you may be able to find that bet priced much better at other sportsbooks. This is one of the benefits of using multiple sportsbooks. If you can’t find a better price, it might be a bet worth passing on.